Black Sea: Insurance, Oil Under Pressure

On January 13, two tankers operated by Greek shipowners were struck by drones as they were heading to a Russian terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to load crude oil.

Insurers reacted without delay: "war risk" premiums for Black Sea stopovers climbed to approximately 1% of the vessel''s value, compared with 0.6 to 0.8% at the end of December. Most concerning is that these conditions are now revised every 24 hours, reflecting strong market nervousness and a permanent reassessment of risk. The stake goes well beyond these two incidents. The CPC carries about 80% of Kazakhstan''s oil exports, nearly 1% of global supply. Any disruption to this corridor therefore has repercussions felt well beyond the region.

For Europe and France, the consequences are tangible. The rise in insurance premiums mechanically leads to higher freight costs and pushes both insurers and maritime operators toward greater caution. This uncertainty complicates supply planning and creates a risk of tension on CPC Blend, a crude closely monitored by several European refiners.